Assignment 5

Assignment 5
Jeff Hessburg
25 April 2017

Part I

For white population

There is a positive correlation with:

Median household income, number of manufacturing employees, number of retail employees, and number of finance employees. the correlation for median household income is lower than the others, but the sig. is still low enough to say there is a correlation. 

For black population

There is a negative correlation with:

Median household income, number of manufacturing employees, number of retail employees, and number of finance employees. None are very close to -1, but all sig. are low enough to reject the null hypothesis

For Hispanic population

there is a positive correlation with:

Number of retail employees, and number of finance employees. The retail relationship does not have a low enough sigs to say that there is a an actual correlation. 

There is a negative correlation with:

Median household income,  median household income, number of manufacturing employees

Part II

Introduction
For this assignment, the Texas Election Commission (TEC) wants analysis of the patterns of elections and Hispanic population in Texas. The specific data being analyzed is Hispanic population, percent of democratic votes for the 1980 presidential election, voter turnout for the 1980 presidential election, percent of democratic votes for the 2016 presidential election, and voter turnout for the 2016 election. The goal is to see if there there is spatial auto-correlation of voting results for each of the elections as well as voter turnout. Also TEC wants to know if clustering is present, perhaps with Hispanic populations.

Methodology
To analyze the data, the excel sheets that contained all of the information about the Hispanic population and voter data had to retrieved off of the Census Website. Then they had to be minor edited, and added to ArcMap. The tables must be joined together with a shape-file of Texas. This is because, Geoda, the program that runs spatial auto-correlation analysis can only to the analysis with shape-files. The Geoda program will give the results wanted. The program will provide Moran's I scatter plots and LISA cluster maps for all of the data.

Results

Percent Hispanic Population

These result shows, with high correlation, that, generally, Hispanic populations are clustered together. 

Percent Democratic Votes for 1980 Election

These results show the clustering of democratic votes (red) and clustering of non-democratic votes (blue). The Moran I scatter plot shows there is a fairly strong correlation between location and voting patterns. 

Voter Turnout for 1980 Election

These results show where the high voter turnout is (red) and low voter turnout (blue). 

Percent Democratic Votes for 2016 Election

These results show the clustering of democratic votes (red) and clustering of non-democratic votes (blue). The Moran I scatter plot shows there is a fairly strong correlation between location and voting patterns. It can be noted that is a difference in these results and the 1980 results. 

Voter Turnout for 2016 Election

These results show where the high voter turnout is (red) and low voter turnout (blue). 

Conclusion
   These results show that there is clear clustering of democratic voting. It tends to be primarily in the southern parts of the state. from 1980 to 2016 democratic voting clusters have gone from the eastern part of the state to the west. This is similar with the non-democratic votes. they have always been in the north, but moved east to west.
   The results also highlight voter turnout. According to the maps, voter turnout is very low in the southern parts of the states, and higher in the northern parts, the patterns are similar from 1980 to 2016, except in 2016 there is a new cluster of low voting in the northwestern part of the state.
   The first part of the results shows where there are clusters of Hispanic populations. These are in the south and southwest parts of the states. This makes sense because this is where Mexico boarders Texas. Analyzing the maps, it is evident that democratic votes corresponds to Hispanic population. It also seems like there may be some relationship between low voter turnout and Hispanic populations.

Assignment 4

Assignment 4
Jeff Hessburg
GEOG 370
2 April 2017

Part one of this blog requires completing the table below:

What is needed is

α = which is the significant level for a given test. To figure out this value; first look if the interval type is one tailed or two tailed. 

- If the interval type is One Tailed, than take 100 and subtract it from the confidence level, then times by (1/100) to get α

- If the interval type is two tailed, there is an extra step. Take 100 and subtract it from the confidence level, the times by (1/100), then finally divide by two, to get α.

Next it must be decided if the test is a z test or a t test. The test is will be a z test if n (the sample size) is greater than 30. If n is less than 30, a t test is required. 

Lastly, the Critical Value for the given Significance Level needs to be determined. This can be determined by looking at a table that gives the values for the given test type. If the test type is z, then the following table must be used. To read the table, take 1-α, then find the value on the graph, this will give the z value

http://www.stat.ufl.edu/~athienit/Tables/Ztable.pdf

If the test is a t test, the following table is used. to read it, first the degrees of freedom is needed to be calculated. This can be calculated by using the following equation: n-1. Use degrees of freedom and the α in the top row. This will determine the t value

http://d2r5da613aq50s.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/451675.image0.jpg

For z and t test, If the interval type is two tailed, the negative and positive z or t values must be included.

The completed table is below:

For the second question in this assignment, an estimate from the Department of Agriculture and Live Stock Development is compared to the survey of 23 farmers. The estimate includes; ground nuts, cassava, and beans. Shown below are the calculations for t-value,  a visualization of where the t value places on a standard distribution with 95% confidence, the probability of the actual value, and if the hypothesized mean is rejected or failed to be rejected. 

There are not many similarities or differences. None of the hypothesis fell very close to the mean, but only one got rejected. One hypothesis fell above the mean and two below. 

For Part three the objective is to calculate if a researches suspicion of if a stream is polluted above the allowable limit. The calculations and results are shown below. 

PART II

Null hypothesis- There is no difference between the value of City of Eau Claire homes and the homes in all of Eau Claire County. 

Alternative hypothesis- There is a difference between the value of City of Eau Claire homes and the homes in all of Eau Claire County. 

Statistical Test- Two tailed Z test. Z test because the sample size is larger than 30 and two tailed because the null hypothesis could be rejected if the test gets results above or below the mean. 

An α of .05 was chosen because, after literature review, it was discovered that .05 is chosen for most average tests like this. There are worries of type I and type II error but not much of one over the other. 95% confidence level is perfect when trying to avoid both errors. 

Below are the calculations that determine if the null hypothesis can be rejected. 

It can be concluded that there is a difference between the average value of homes in the city of Eau Claire, and the County of Eau Claire as a whole.

Below is a visual representation of the average value of home in its given block group.